THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT: DO WE HAVE GLOBAL WARMING OR GLOBAL COOLING?

THE EARTH IS SICK AND POLITICS MAKES PROFIT ON  IT

Little Glenn had great dreams. He was only 5 years old when he decided he will become  a climatologist. Many years ago, one sunny afternoon, his grandpa, the former military geo engineer, had shown him the tiny butterfly that had been caught in jar. The beautiful colors on its wings have melted under the boy’s eyes while the insect was trying to get out of prison. Glenn’s grandfather did not waste time and he introduced his grandson with the meaning of butterfly effect.  No matter how small cause is, it can have greater effects. In other words, one individual change can influence the global differences.

At least, this is how The Chaos Theory is seeing the butterfly effect and how this phenomena has been accepted into the reality of weather studies: ”The term itself was coined by Edward Lorenz, for the effect which had been known long before, and is derived from the metaphorical example of the details of a tornado (exact time of formation, exact path taken) being influenced by minor perturbations such as the flapping of the wings of a distant  butterfly,  several weeks earlier. Lorenz discovered the effect when he observed that runs of his weather model with initial condition data that was rounded in a seemingly inconsequential manner would fail to reproduce the results of runs with the unrounded initial condition data. A very small change in initial conditions had created a significantly different outcome. The idea that small causes may have large effects in general and in weather specifically was used from Henri Poincare to Norbert Wiener.”

25 years later, Glenn is the American atmospheric scientist and professor at University of Utah. He is now facing up with political agenda that directs the logic of professionals, the limits of what is allowed to be presented to the global public and what will never be exposed. It is almost like playing with the devil, you are never sure what the costs of leaving or losing the game are. However, Glenn knows that the Earth is not only polluted with the bad energy of geo engineering science but also with the profit ambition of the interest groups on the international level. The humankind is causing the dying of green planet and the lobbyists are earning the money on selling the myths instead of facts, the dreams instead of reality.

What is going on? The climate changes are happening and our leaders are not bothered at all. Their priority is to make sure that economy lives in spite of ecology that dies. All those magnitudes in environment, ups and downs of Earth’s health are not worth of politicians that are concerned only about final results: money. The global agreement is impossible because there is no country that would deny its own right to use the possibility to fix the economy, even if that means destroying the concept of sustainable development.

The status of climate is burning issue in environmental and global policy. There are those who claim that global warming is achieving the dangerous level and there are those who confront them with own perspective of global cooling. Therefore, the Earth can be hotter or colder, as you wish.

The typical example of non-consolidated Green Policy is the U.S., stuck with its never-ending line of separation between liberals and conservatives. The first believe they could save Planet, the second do not believe that first could do it. At the end of the day, The Paris Agreement is a bone in a throat for President Trump that based his presidential campaign on promises that USA will leave the Agreement made under the Obama Administration. In June 2017, American President announced the withdrawal from the deal. That was a shock for the international ecological community. That move would put America together with Syria and Nicaragua, as the only countries out of the global agenda for climate actions. In September 2017, it seems that President Trump has other ideas, so it is to be expected that America probably will stay if the   favorable terms are offered. Unfortunately, the American internal political distinction and the sharp distinction between democrats and republicans will challenge the whole world in some of the most crucial issues. If it is not broken, don’t fix it. I agree but in this case, everything is broken and nothing could be really fixed. We could only try to save the last moments of the Planet Earth that we have destroyed since our first day here. When Trump Administration gets out of the Paris climate accord, U.S. won’t be obligated to implement the recommended corporative standards, able to stop the further pressure on climate system and to keep Earth in balance:” The Paris Agreement’s central aim is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Additionally, the agreement aims to strengthen the ability of countries to deal with the impacts of climate change. To reach these ambitious goals, appropriate financial flows, a new technology framework and an enhanced capacity-building framework will be put in place, thus supporting action by developing countries and the most vulnerable countries, in line with their own national objectives.”

The main problem now is the question that divide the global population: what is behind the Paris Agreement? Honest concern for the future of this Planet or the hidden interests of some groups to limit other groups in the economic and financial race? It could be the both but there is a trend in certain media lately, to oppose the global warming with concept of global cooling. There are some claims that global warming is a hoax that it stopped and instead of it, we are welcoming the global cooling. However, according to scientists, the global cooling is a climate myth, without supporting climate model that predict the cooling of the Earth. All indicators that could optionally be used as indicators of global cooling are actually the indicators of global warming. Our developed technology has enabled us to measure the warming of the Earth’s oceans and the oscillations at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere. Glaciers, sea ice and ice sheets are all receding while the sea levels are rising. The humidity, the temperature over the land and oceans and the ocean heat content are on the rise too. One expert noticed that the springs come earlier, which also confirms the states that Earth is warming.

We are not entering the zone of possible mini ice age, although some scientists believe we could achieve such trend, if the solar energy is diminished. Then, I am wondering why our planet is keeping the scary records in global hotness. Each year is hotter as the previous one with many new occurring symptoms of climate cancer: „Over 90% of global warming goes into heating the oceans.  When taking the heating of the entire climate system into account, the planet has warmed at a rate equivalent to 4 Hiroshima atomic bomb detonations per second over the past 15 years.”

The Earth is dying and we do all we can to accelerate its death. We keep killing the ecosystem and the wildlife diversity. We keep booming and making the pressure with population contrary to the recommend measures of birth control. We keep doing all we should not and what we do too is producing a numerous number of conspiracy theories, just to redirect people’s interest into the wrong corner. No, there is no global cooling but only terrible and dangerous global warming. This global warming is not a product of liberals or conservatives but a price we pay for our greedy economies. The mitigating global warming will not hurt the sensible financial zones but if we keep ignoring the climate changes, we won’t survive the final costs of it. Just for an information, economic studies have shown that mitigation is several times less costly as fighting to not admit the consequences of climate changes.

There is no time for our cheap political discussions and regressive divisions between those who count stars and those who count dollars. It is time for united action for all, for our children, for our future, for our Earth, for our survival.

Glenn is tired after the long day. He is sure that he saw two Suns. Something bad is happening and he cannot detect what. The Earth is silent, like it is ready to take its last breath…

2 thoughts on “THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT: DO WE HAVE GLOBAL WARMING OR GLOBAL COOLING?

  1. This is an excellent discussion, Sarah, and I couldn’t be any happier that you have picked this topic , as it is of utmost importance !

    Global warming is a fact and has been proven scientifically ! The ultimate truth in this world is, and will always be, based on the rational and logical thinking stemming from Math and Science !

    It’s not time for charlatanry, nor it is time for demagoguery ! Period ! Irrespective of the beliefs and agendas of the republicans and the democrats, Global Warming is a FACT !

    It’s time we, as humans, mended our harmful and destructive ways vis-a-vis Nature and the Environment ! It is time we stopped interfering with our Ecosystems whether it be due to this senseless and cruel killing of all Animals, or due to the killing of Plants through Deforestation and excess Carbon Dioxide !

    In my mind and my eyes, It’s now or never !
    It’s time we, as humans, put heads together, in order to save our precious planet, not only for us, but most importantly for our progeny !

    It’s time all countries worked together, as one unit, to face this upcoming calamity, and to set “human greed” aside, for once at least, in order to solve this problem and to ward off this cataclysm !

    In closing, what better words, albeit so saddening, than your own words, Sarah:
    “Glenn is tired after the long day. He is sure that he saw two Suns. Something bad is happening and he cannot detect what. The Earth is silent, like it is ready to take its last breath…”

    I can’t thank you enough, Sarah, for this wonderful discussion and profound article ! You are brilliant !

    Like

  2. Sarah’s provocative and enlightening article brings to the fore the unavoidable debate upon the natural and synthetic progenitors of global warming and planetary cooling. Naturally, the Earth is unleashing various chemicals from within its interiors (e.g. greenhouse gases), as the human carbon footprint contributes to this process. If humans had not brought about The Industrial Revolution and its extensive and excessive negative impacts on the natural environments, the Earth would have dictated to climate change, anyway (e.g. ice ages and intense tectonic movement).

    Nevertheless, the entire species of humans is now confronted with the pressing issue of how to survive on planet Earth, with possible contradictory pressures arising from both Nature and humans.

    A Russian liquefied natural gas tanker completed its maiden voyage through the waters of The Arctic Ocean in late-August of 2017, without the use of an icebreaker; ushering in a new step in the exploitation of the dramatically warming polar region. Those conditions are changing rapidly. The Arctic Ocean is warming twice as fast as the global average. As a result, both the extent and volume of ocean ice is decreasing. The area of The Arctic Ocean covered by ice in September has fallen by half, compared to the average of recent decades. Likewise, the average thickness of what remains has declined by 1.8 meters.

    Scientists expect these observed trends to continue and even accelerate. Some scenarios envision largely ice-free polar regions during summertime as soon as the 2030s. While ice will continue to lock up the waterways during winter, the length of shipping seasons will grow. By the end of the 21st century, most of The Arctic Ocean may be open water half the year or longer.

    The warming temperatures and declining ocean ice have brought with them intensified conflict over claims of sovereignty and expansion of military activity.

    Wildfires raged for weeks in Greenland in August of 2017. The fires are unprecedented in size and duration; marking an ominous new stage in the warming of Greenland and the entire Arctic Ocean region.
    The burned-out area is on the border between the frigid, arid grasslands close to the border of the ice sheet, and typically wetter, coastal landscapes with mosses, shrubs and small trees. The fires appear to be fuelled at least in part by peat; the partially decomposed plant material which takes thousands of years to form.
    The fires indicate that the layer of frozen ground known as ‘permafrost’ has melted to an extent not expected until 2050.

    Wildfires together with warming temperatures are thought to be responsible for much of the accelerated melting of ice. Fires across the northern hemisphere deposit black soot on the white surface of Greenland’s ice sheet, darkening the ice and absorbing more of the Sun’s heat.

    Perhaps, the most ominous aspect is the prospect for the synergistic impacts of climate change and wildfire activity in the high latitudes to increase further in the future. While on a global scale, wildfires are trending downwards, largely driven by expanding agriculture in the African savannas, areas of the high north like Alaska have seen a sharp increase in large forest fires over the past few decades.

    As warming temperatures continue to alter Arctic Ocean ecosystems, increased fire activity could release vast stores of carbon buried in soil, darkening and destabilizing ice sheets, adding global warming gases to the atmosphere, and amplifying the changes under way, already…

    Like

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About Sarahowlgirl1982

I am a master of Political Sciences, with special focus on Security Studies, Islamic Counter Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction. I enjoy discovering and commenting things which are " in the air" but still not spoken.I also do like science writing and planing to move myself into the pure science journalism !